Federal Labor flags concern as state support plunges

Nick Wilson and Eleanor Wilson | October 26, 2026

Confidence in Victoria’s Labor government is plunging weeks out from an election, as a senior federal colleague expresses concern about the state party’s uphill battle.

Federal Health Minister Mark Butler conceded on Monday that the November 28 Victorian election would be “a tough one” for Labor, as fresh opinion polls show a 10 per cent negative swing compared with support on election night in 2022.

“After 12 years and some of very difficult years for Victoria, particularly through COVID, it’s no surprise that this is going to be an uphill battle for Ben Carroll and the Labor team,” Mr Butler told ABC News Breakfast.

Primary support for Labor has slumped four points to 24 per cent since Mr Carroll ascended as premier in July, according to the latest Newspoll conducted in October and published by The Australian on Monday.

Labor’s dive in the polls solidifies opposition leader Jess Wilson’s box seat position to become the next premier, with primary support for the coalition surging to 33 per cent.

That represented a lift of two per cent, while One Nation’s vote edged one point to 20 per cent.

Labor’s two-party preferred vote has plunged 10 per cent since the 2022 election, according to the Newspoll, placing the coalition ahead 55-45.

Nearly half of the 1017 Victorian voters surveyed online indicated Ms Wilson was their preferred premier, while Mr Carroll polled 34 per cent.

Victorian Labor will on Monday embark on day two of its official ground campaign ahead of the  November state election.

Premier Ben Carroll is hoping to fend off the Liberal-National coalition and take his incumbent party to a historic fourth term in government.

On the first official day of Labor’s campaign, Mr Carroll was keen to tie the opposition to a resurgent One Nation, while touting his government’s health credentials with a $1.5 billion pledge to reduce emergency wait times.

“Every Victorian knows there’s a real choice at this election,” he told reporters on Sunday.

“A party and a movement that is fighting for working people, or a Liberal-One Nation coalition that will hurt working people.”

The refrain is one Mr Carroll has used since first becoming premier, warning of a “Liberal-One Nation government” in his maiden speech in July.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has explicitly ruled out forming a formal coalition with One Nation but has refused to be drawn on whether she would rely on its MPs if they are needed to form government. 

But Mr Carroll has made clear his belief the opposition will need the minor party’s support to take power.

On Sunday, he cited reports in The Age newspaper that a Liberal candidate had been recorded encouraging a voter to support One Nation in the upper house and the Liberals in the lower house.

“Her own candidates are telling people to vote for One Nation,” Mr Carroll said.

Pressed on the report, Ms Wilson stressed the Liberal candidate exposed in the article had apologised and retained her support.

“Mistakes happen in campaigns,” she told reporters while accusing Labor of being weak on crime.