Inflation numbers to bring relief for mortgage holders
Andrew Brown |
Mortgage holders will likely be able to breathe a sigh of relief with the Reserve Bank largely tipped to keep interest rates on hold.
Governor Michele Bullock and the central bank’s board will meet on Monday and Tuesday, with economists forecasting the cash rate to stay at 4.35 per cent.
The prediction follows a surprise fall in inflation, despite it still being well above the bank’s target band of two to three per cent.
June data revealed headline inflation fell from four to 3.8 per cent for the month, the lowest levels since the start of the Iran war.
Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred measure, remained steady at 3.6 per cent.
Senior economist at NAB, Taylor Nugent, said the RBA would likely fall into line with market forecasts.
“The RBA would need a push to deliver further tightening and the net of data flow since May has not given them that push,” he said.
“Unemployment is a little above their forecast and underlying inflation marginally lower than feared.”
Mr Nugent said the RBA would likely monitor the impact of higher fuel prices on inflation following the removal of the federal government’s fuel excise discount and oil prices spiking due to renewed volatility in the Middle East.
“NAB expects the next move (by the RBA) will ultimately be down but inflation risks do remain elevated,” he said.
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said the central bank would likely take a wait-and-see approach before choosing to make a move on the cash rate.
“That being said, as inflation is still above target, we expect the central bank to continue to express concern that inflation is too high,” he said.
“We see the downswing in growth being sufficient that the RBA begins to cut its cash rate in H2 2027.”
Mr Bloxham said there was still a chance, if inflation does not fall fast enough, that the RBA could still lift rates later in 2026.
“With trimmed mean inflation now having been above the mid-point of the RBA’s target band for over four years, we see the board’s tolerance for upside surprises or a slower-than-currently-projected return of inflation to target, as likely to be low.”
Ms Bullock will also face a parliamentary inquiry on Friday, where the bank’s board will come under scrutiny.
Tuesday will also have fresh figures on business confidence be released when NAB’s latest monthly survey is unveiled.
Wall Street is meanwhile on the advance, with the US economy unexpectedly shedding jobs and amid dampened expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Friday 151.83 points, or 0.28 per cent, to 54,036.93, the S&P 500 gained 0.62 per cent, to 7,757.64 and the Nasdaq 1.30 per cent, to 26,690.62.
Australian share futures climbed 33 points, or 0.35 per cent, to 7,775.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 fell eight points on Friday, down 0.09 per cent to 9,263.6, after a five-day winning streak and all-time highs in the previous two sessions.
The broader All Ordinaries eased by 6.9 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 9,445.1.
AAP