Wet and wild: AFL grand final shapes as soggy affair
Callum Godde and Shayne Hope |
Former wet weather specialist and Brisbane premiership hero Simon Black believes forecast showers could aide the current Lions’ bid to match his team’s famous three-peat.
Black was among Brisbane’s best in the 2002 decider, when they beat Collingwood at a sodden MCG to win the second of three flags under Leigh Matthews.
It was one of few grand finals played in wet conditions this century.
Black is confident Chris Fagan’s Lions can handle similar conditions better than Fremantle at the MCG on Saturday, with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting up to 15mm of rain and a top of 16 degrees.
“They play well in the wet,” Black said.
“They’re pretty good at being able to adapt to conditions and getting territory and get the ball going forward.
“I think they do it exceptionally well in big finals.
“If it is wet, that’s how it’s going to be played – territory’s your friend … so I think that will hold them in reasonably good stead.”
Black will present the Lions with the cup if they are successful on Saturday, with Fremantle naming inaugural captain Shaun McManus for the honour if they break through for a maiden flag.
McManus noted Fremantle were outplayed in wet conditions in their qualifying final loss to Hawthorn, but described that match as a “good sighter”.
“Although they went down in that game, they would’ve learnt some valuable lessons,” McManus said.
“It was good they got that chance a couple of weeks ago to play in wet weather.”
Fremantle’s three tall forwards – Josh Treacy, Patrick Voss and Jye Amiss – were particularly quiet against the Hawks.
But McManus felt it was more about the trio getting in each other’s way than the conditions.
“Josh Treacy can certainly play on the ground and Patrick Voss can play like a hybrid tall, so they’re just going to have to make better space for each other,” McManus said.
“In that game Fremantle overused the ball, so I’d imagine both teams will get the talking to if it is raining.
“Whoever adjusts the quickest is going to have a big advantage.”
All-Australian half-back Jordan Clark, one of Fremantle’s best against Hawthorn, played down the significance of rain in the grand final.
“It wouldn’t affect us too much,” Clark said.
“It’s game of footy, goalposts at each end, the same for both teams.”
The latest forecast put the chance of at least 3mm of rain at 75 per cent and the odds of at least 15mm at one in four.
Senior meteorologist Dean Narramore said it was looking like a wet grand final day in Melbourne with periods of persistent rain.
“We’ll see showers develop in the morning and then it probably tend to rain at times during the late morning, afternoon and late afternoon period,” he told AAP.
“If we get a few millimetres it’s the wettest since 2011, if we get 9mm then it’s the wettest since 2002, and if we get over 10mm then it’s the wettest since 1975.
“We’ve had a long run of partly cloudy days or mostly sunny days for the last 10 to 15 years.”
There was 9mm of rain when Brisbane saluted in 2002 and Geelong handled it well in 2009 and 2011, beating St Kilda and Collingwood when 2mm and 3mm of rain fell on those days.
An under-17s curtain-raiser has been moved from the MCG to Whitten Oval due to the forecast heavy rain.
AAP