Numbers in Australia’s favour for World Cup progression

Anna Harrington | June 24, 2026

The Socceroos know the numbers are in their favour at this World Cup.

Now it’s on them not to let a golden opportunity slip by.

It would take a disastrous performance against Paraguay for Australia to miss out on the round of 32 at this year’s World Cup.

Because of the new 32-team format, eight of the 12 best third-placed finishers will reach the knockouts.

With a win or draw against Paraguay in Santa Clara on Thursday (Friday AEST), Australia finish second in Group D behind the United States, locking in a trip to Dallas next week to face the runners-up in Group G.

A defeat would mean a nervous wait, but probably still progression through third place – bar a heavy loss and other results going against Australia.

While the exact number has fluctuated as results come in, Opta stats have consistently given the Socceroos between a 90 and 93 per cent chance of making it through to the knockouts.

Assistant coach Paul Okon knows the players will be aware of the permutations.

“We hope, we expect to go through as the second-place team in the group,” Okon said.

“But obviously the most important thing is, our goal is, to get to that knockout stage.

“So I’m sure everyone’s aware of all those percentages and the scenarios, and possibly who we could come up against, and where we would play, and what the turnaround would be.

“But right now I think that that’s the last thing on our minds.

“The focus is … this game against Paraguay, which will be a really important game in our history.”

Paraguay’s Omar Alderete on Tuesday said the South Americans were determined to win and seal second spot.

Okon and the rest of the coaching staff certainly aren’t thinking about a draw that would likely send both teams through.

“Hand on heart, I can’t remember in the coaches’ room where we’ve even discussed that possible scenario,” he said. 

“Of course, we’re aware what a draw means … but I don’t think we’re good enough to go into a game from the first minute trying to play for a draw.”

Australia expect Paraguay to repeat the strong, defensive approach that snagged them a 1-0 win over Turkey with 10 men.

“We don’t expect too many surprises,” Okon said.

“They’re a typical South American team – have very technical players, but on the other hand they also … have a backs-to-the-wall mentality, so it’s going to be a fight.”

Okon flagged changes to Australia’s line-up were likely, but wouldn’t buy into whether the likes of Nestory Irankunda, Connor Metcalfe and Cristian Volpato would start.

Veteran Mathew Leckie (hamstring) will be a forced omission at Levi’s Stadium.

“Mat Leckie will be out of this game, and obviously what happens post-Paraguay will determine what happens with his rehab,” Okon said.

“So at the moment he’s not active. It’s very unfortunate. 

“He’s an experienced player. We could have continued to use him certainly in this game, but whatever happens with Mat will depend on how far we go into this tournament.”