Penrith must defy history to go from bottom to finals
Scott Bailey |
Penrith must defy 30 years of history to make finals, with data showing no side has ever climbed from last place this late in a season to make the NRL’s top eight.
Saturday’s loss to Manly has left the four-time defending premiers on the bottom of the table, with coach Ivan Cleary insisting ladder position does not matter until July.
But history does suggest otherwise.
Since the ARL introduced a top-eight finals system in 1995, no team placed last from round eight onwards has recovered to make the finals.
In the 30 seasons since, 15 teams ranked last after eight rounds have finished with the wooden spoon, while another six have run second-last.
Penrith best hope could come from the Canberra team of 2002, who were last on the ladder after seven rounds before being knocked out in the first week of finals.
But even that side had a far easier path, as part of a smaller 14-team competition where Canterbury were effectively disqualified for salary-cap breaches.
Manly’s 2015 team also bare some similarities, ranked last after eight rounds before recovering to finish ninth and running out of puff late in the year.
“The statistics say it would be tough to do,” Geoff Toovey, who coached that Manly 2015 team, told AAP.
“But it’s not impossible.
“If you’re in a team and it’s losing, it’s very hard to turn it around.
“But once you do, and you start winning, and you’re on that winning streak, then it’s hard to stop that as well.”
Toovey has some experience with what Penrith are going through as both a coach and a player.
His 2015 Sea Eagles started 2-6 like Penrith before a post-Origin burst put them on the cusp of the finals.
In 1998 he was also part of a Manly team that started the season slow after three straight grand finals, before recovering to be knocked out in week one.
“To be minor premiers and premiers for so long, mentally and physically you have to be right on your game,” Toovey said.
“So maybe that’s taken its toll after four years.
“You are the champions. Everyone’s after you. And to maintain that level of play that you need to sustain a winning culture is very difficult.”
Penrith’s situation is deepened by the fact they will lose their biggest names to State of Origin come round 12.
And while they have byes before the other Origins, players will likely need to back up days after playing for NSW.
Sunday’s Magic Round clash with Brisbane now looms as crucial, with the Panthers needing to bank points immediately.
Even if they do reach finals, a question remains over how much gas will be in the tank for a fifth straight title.
“Don’t write them off, because if they come home on a roll they will be very hard to stop,” Toovey said.
AAP
