Home finals up for grabs in frantic AFL finish

Justin Chadwick | August 21, 2023

Ross Lyon has already masterminded a return to September action for St Kilda and he could put a dent in Brisbane’s premiership hopes as early as this weekend.

Ladder leaders Collingwood (68 points), second-placed Brisbane (64), third-placed Port Adelaide (64) and fourth-placed Melbourne (60) are guaranteed top-four berths and the double chance that comes with it.

But the order remains up in the air.

If Collingwood stumbles against Essendon at the MCG on Friday night, Brisbane can snare the minor premiership with victory over St Kilda at the Gabba on Saturday.

But given the Lions are only percentage ahead of Port, Brisbane will no doubt be content just to lock up second spot and a guaranteed two home finals.

St Kilda, led by Lyon in his second coming at the club, could ruin Brisbane’s plans and also boost their own chances of causing havoc in September.

The Saints (52 points) enter the final round in sixth spot, just half a game ahead of seventh-placed Sydney (50 points).

An upset victory over Brisbane would lock in a home elimination for the Saints.

But a loss to Brisbane and a Sydney win over Melbourne at the SCG would result in St Kilda losing hosting rights.

If Port and Brisbane both slip up, Melbourne could swoop in to steal second spot.

Eighth-placed GWS face arguably the toughest final-round assignment – a match against Carlton at Marvel Stadium on Sunday.

The fifth-placed Blues are on a nine-match winning streak, and are likely to host an elimination final even if they lose to GWS.

The Giants (48) sit a win ahead of the ninth-placed Bulldogs (44) but have an inferior percentage.

It means that if the Bulldogs beat Geelong at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night, GWS would need to beat Carlton in order to make the finals.

The Bulldogs have only themselves to blame for their current predicament, given they suffered a shock seven-point loss to strugglers West Coast at Marvel Stadium on Sunday.

Port Adelaide host Richmond on Sunday, and second spot will be there for the taking if Brisbane lose a day earlier.

Power coach Ken Hinkley says his team will try their best regardless of the situation.

“We set out to qualify as high as we can at the start the year and (Sunday’s match) gives us an opportunity to hopefully still qualify even higher than we are now,” Hinkley said.

“But to be sitting third after 22 games of football – we’re pretty happy where we sit. But we know the biggest stuff is still coming.”

RUN HOME FOR THE AFL FINALS CONTENDERS:

1. COLLINGWOOD (68 points, 123.2 per cent) v Essendon (MCG)

2. BRISBANE LIONS (64, 123.2) v St Kilda (G)

3. PORT ADELAIDE (64, 111.5) v Richmond (AO)

4. MELBOURNE (60, 124.8) v Sydney (SCG)

5. CARLTON (54, 116.1) v GWS (MS)

6. ST KILDA (52, 108.9) v Brisbane Lions (G)

7. SYDNEY (50, 111.6) v Melbourne (SCG)

8. GWS (48, 105.6) v Carlton (MS)

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9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (44, 107.6) v Geelong (GMHBA)