Australia’s ‘healthy’ jobs market gets monthly check-up
Jacob Shteyman |
Australia’s jobs market is forecast to remain in good health, despite an expected rise in the unemployment rate.
Labour force figures to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday could show the jobless rate ticked up to 4.3 per cent in August, retracing a 0.1 per cent drop to 4.2 per cent the month before.
That would be in line with the Reserve Bank’s forecasts for the unemployment rate, meaning it would have little impact on the central bank’s cash rate considerations, economists at JP Morgan said.
“That said, at these levels there is little scope for any further deterioration without a dovish shift in the bank’s tone/forecast,” said Ben Jarman, Tom Kennedy and Tom Ryan in a research note.
With jobs growth trending in line with overall population growth, recent data paints a picture of a labour market in balance.
“Indicators of labour demand generally have steadied over the past year or so at healthy levels,” economists at NAB said.
While strong employment growth in 2023 and 2024 was driven primarily by a rapid expansion in the health and care economy workforce, jobs growth in those sectors has flatlined since the start of 2025, they said.
That gives the private sector more room to pick up hiring without the risk of re-tightening the broader labour market and subsequently driving up inflation.
“The labour market remains near balance and has not been a source of upward pressure on inflation over the past year or so,” NAB’s economics team said.
AAP
