Aussie voters face big question after Canadian election
Tess Ikonomou |
A centre-left party comes from behind in the polls to win an election fought over living costs and Donald Trump.
Sound familiar?
With just days until Saturday’s poll, political insiders are dissecting the results of an election on the other side of the world.
Canada’s ruling Liberal Party – which shares a name with Australia’s conservative party but occupies the other side of the political spectrum – has won enough seats to retain government.
It’s a remarkable outcome for the Liberals, who were 20 percentage points behind in the polls earlier this year.
The progressive party looked headed for a crushing defeat until the US president started attacking Canada’s economy and threatening its sovereignty, suggesting it should become the 51st state.
Donald Trump’s actions enraged Canadians and stoked a surge in nationalism that helped the Liberals flip the script and win a fourth-straight term.
The opposition wanted to make the election a referendum on former prime minister Justin Trudeau, who was waning in popularity as food, power and housing prices surged.
But Mr Trudeau soon quit and was replaced as leader ahead of the election, with disaffected voters flocking back to his party as Mr Trump threatened annexation and a trade war.
There are obvious differences between the Canadian experience and Australian election but also some parallels, including the upending influence of Mr Trump.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reflected on this trend during an interview with one of the world’s most popular podcasts, The Rest is Politics.
He described the US president’s impact on the Australian campaign as far less than people believed, unlike in Canada, where it was “brutal”.
“It is more distant but certainly the uncertainty that is in the global economy and the world has an impact as well,” Mr Albanese said.
During the podcast interview, Mr Albanese referenced the US president in relation to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
Mr Dutton was “channelling some other world leaders we’re seeing” and “bringing a machismo” to politics, he said.
Mr Dutton’s campaign has suffered by association with the US president, with Labor accusing the coalition of adopting a Trumpian agenda through measures including public service job cuts.
After lagging in opinion polls, Labor is considered in the box seat to form minority government, if not obtain power in its own right.
Political strategist Jack Milroy, who has worked on progressive campaigns in Canada and Australia, said the US relationship would be less of a factor on Saturday but voters were still conscious of the global instability.
“The Canadian example has kind of shown that a strong approach to the US seems to pay dividends politically,” he told AAP.
“The Labor Party is in a good position for our election, but it will be interesting to see how they relate to the US going forward.”
Mr Milroy will be looking to see whether support for Australia’s two major parties increases in response to global headwinds, as happened in Canada.
Published polling suggests Australian voters have drifted from Labor and the coalition in favour of independents and minor parties.
“What will be very interesting is if we see a reversal of that trend to follow the Canadian example,” he said.
“And in that search for security, voters come back to the major parties.”
A Resolve Political Monitor poll published in Nine newspapers on Wednesday has Labor ahead of the coalition at 53 per cent to 47 per cent in two-party terms.
Mr Albanese is ahead of Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister, at 47 per cent versus 31 per cent.
Mr Albanese will address the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday, while Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will begin the day in Melbourne.
AAP
