Dutton opts to be underdog as Libs fight to retain seat

Andrew Brown | February 10, 2023

History may be on their side, but the Liberals are painting themselves as the underdogs ahead of the Aston by-election.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former coalition minister Alan Tudge, who cited health and family reasons after reporting death threats against his teenage daughters for his departure.

Mr Tudge held his outer Melbourne seat by just 2.8 per cent, having suffered a more than seven per cent swing against him at the last election.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said the by-election would be difficult for the coalition.

“It is a tough seat for us to hold, there’s no question about that, and there are lots of families there, though, who are really feeling the pain of their mortgages,” he told the Nine Network’s Today program on Friday.

A sitting government has not won an electorate off the opposition at a by-election since 1920.

Electoral analyst Kevin Bonham said historical trends suggested the coalition could even pick up ground when voters go to the polls.

“The average result for an opposition vacancy is a small swing to the opposition, about another one per cent or so,” he told AAP.

However, Mr Bonham said Labor was in with a shot to take Aston, due to recent high opinion polls for the Albanese government and strong results for Labor at the Victorian state election.

“The swing patterns in the Victorian state election and the federal election were remarkably similar – the whole COVID politics had a big influence on swings,” he said.

Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley said she would always support pre-selecting strong women candidates but noted the candidate would be chosen by the Victorian division.

“I always want to see more women in parliament,” she told reporters in Canberra.

“I know they’ll make those decisions wisely and that they will select an outstanding candidate.”

While talks are under way as to who the Liberals will preselect, former deputy state director for the Victorian Liberals Tony Barry said a female candidate should be chosen.

“We had a federal election review … and recommendation 28 was about a 50 per cent female target, so I think it’s not great if the Liberal Party then goes and preselects a bloke,” he told ABC Radio.

“The party has no choice but to preselect a woman, it would send a terrible message if we went down the path of picking a male.”

Mr Dutton and Ms Ley said they would campaign in the seat.

Ms Ley said the party “received a message” at the last election after losing a slate of Melbourne seats, including the previous Liberal strongholds of Kooyong and Goldstein.

Simon Holmes a Court, the convenor of Climate 200 which helped to back successful teal candidates at the last election, said on social media the group would have “a long hard look” at whether to support an independent candidate in Aston should one emerge.

Mr Bonham said it was unlikely a teal would win the seat.

“Aston isn’t a very teal-favourable seat … it’s not really in the city as such so I think it will be more difficult for a teal to win,” he said.

“It’s not yet clear how durable the teal support is and to what extent it was a backlash against the Morrison government and whether there is a turnout for teal candidates now that Scott Morrison is no longer there.”