Economic growth data next milestone for Reserve Bank
Jacob Shteyman |
The Reserve Bank will turn its gaze to Australia’s economic growth rate after hotter-than-expected inflation data set it on course for another rate rise.
Another strong result will further add to the case for more hikes when the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveals national accounts figures on Wednesday.
However Westpac senior economist Pat Bustamante expects GDP growth to slow to 0.2 per cent for the June quarter.
Higher interest rates and fuel prices are significant headwinds but Mr Bustamante says the economy has been showing signs of resilience, supported by investment in data centres, renewable energy and home building.
“For now, growth remains stuck in the slow lane but the economy appears to be stabilising rather than weakening further,” he said.
GDP growth came in at a relatively subdued 0.3 per cent in the March quarter yet the annual rate was still 2.5 per cent and above the RBA’s assumption for how fast the economy can grow without fuelling inflation.
But Mr Bustamante expects the annual rate to slow to 1.7 per cent year-on-year.
It might not be enough to convince the RBA that enough spare capacity is opening up in the economy to get inflation under control.
Household spending grew at the fastest rate since the series began in 2023 in July, data released on Thursday showed.
Westpac activity data shows strength continuing through early August, Mr Bustamante said, indicating the economy is stabilising rather than weakening further.
As well as GDP partials earlier in the week, the ABS will also release building approvals data on Tuesday and trade figures on Thursday.
Also on Thursday, Reserve Bank chief economist Sarah Hunter will appear before a Senate hearing on intergenerational housing inequity.
While she might deliver some insight into the rise in housing unaffordability in recent decades, there will likely be little new information on the monetary policy front.
Looking abroad, central banks in New Zealand and Canada meet to decide interest rates.
Markets are pricing in a second straight Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike, lifting the official cash rate to 2.75 per cent.
Wall Street investors are meanwhile taking caution after Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s focus on fighting inflation, increasing prospects for a US rate hike.
The S&P 500 lost 0.25 per cent, to finish Friday at 7,711.76, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.52 per cent to 26,402.42 and the Dow Jones closed 0.02 per cent lower to 53,559.99.
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.49 per cent, the Nasdaq rose 0.85 per cent and the Dow climbed 0.53 per cent.
Australian share futures slid 36 points, or 0.39 per cent, to 10,334.
The S&P/ASX200 rose 54.1 points on Friday, up 0.6 per cent, to 9,092.3, as the broader All Ordinaries advanced by 51 points, or 0.55 per cent, to 9,294.2.
AAP