Gold still glitters despite fall from all-time high
Kaaren Morrissey |
In a volatile world dominated by two major wars and high inflation, the outlook for precious metals like gold is looking up.
The spot price of gold is hovering around $US4,000 an ounce, after touching an all-time high of $US5,589.38 an ounce on January 28.
“As the world order is changing, it is positive for the mining industry,” the head of market darling Evolution Mining Lawrie Conway told the Diggers and Dealers Mining Forum on its opening day.
Two years ago, the long-term average consensus for gold and copper pricing sat at about $US1,800 an ounce and $US3.90 per pound, respectively.
The gold price had now more than doubled and the copper price had lifted 40 per cent to $US5.90 per pound, Mr Lawrie told up to 2600 delegates at the forum in Australia’s gold-mining capital Kalgoorlie, in Western Australia.
“So that’s what you are seeing – a shift in the world order is going to be good in terms of metal prices,” he said.
As the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine continue, central banks around the world are moving away from holding US Treasury debt toward gold.
“So that is good for gold,” Mr Conway said.
“If you’re a gold producer, it’s a great place to be.
“But if you’re a gold producer in these times (of high price inflation), the safest bet is to have a high-margin business.”
Mr Conway believes Evolution, a major NSW-based gold and copper miner, is in that category.
“Our margin has exceeded the industry average (and) it means we are generating more cash per ounce of gold that we produce than anyone else,” he said.
The company is the second-largest gold producer on the Australian stock exchange and wholly owns five mines, including Cowal (NSW), Ernest Henry and Mt Rawdon (Queensland), Mungari (WA) and Red Lake (Canada).
It also has an 80 per cent stake in the Northparks mine in NSW.
Last week, Evolution announced plans to expand in Queensland with the $213 million takeover of Western Australia-based-Carnaby Resources, which owns the Greater Duchess Copper-Gold Project.
Evolution’s ambitions were the talk of the forum on Monday, where optimism tended to outweigh any pessimism about the gold sector.
There’s also heightened interest in other prospective takeover targets, although potential prey can generally point to the rise in the gold price since 2025’s forum to try to reassure investors about their futures.
Asked about this, Mr Conway said while the gold price had certainly tapered off since January, not many people wanted to sell.
“It comes down to, you know, people are still making good cash, and there’s not a lot looking to sell assets right now,” he told reporters.
Asked whether Evolution considered itself a seller or a buyer, the mining boss said Evolution was up for new assets if the right opportunity came along.
“And when I look in the portfolio right now, there’s probably not an asset that we would want to sell, for different reasons,” he said.
“Each of them have growth opportunities and are making good cash.”
The current gold price of about $US4,000 is 20 per cent above the price it was trading at during the 2025 forum.
It’s also a solid move up from a decade ago, when gold peaked at $US1,366.25.
Some market watchers, such as US investment bank JPMorgan, are still tipping another rally in the coming months, with a potential push toward $US5,000 or more on the cards.
The forum continues on Tuesday.
AAP