Russia prepared to invade Ukraine: Biden

Michelle Nichols and Humeyra Pamuk | February 18, 2022

Shelling in Ukraine has renewed Western fears of an imminent Russian invasion as US President Joe Biden says Moscow is preparing a pretext to justify a possible attack and the Kremlin expels an American diplomat.

Early-morning exchanges of fire between Kyiv’s forces and pro-Russian separatists – who have been at war for years and where a ceasefire is periodically violated – caused alarm on Thursday as Western countries have said an incursion could come at any time.

One of the deepest crises in post-Cold War relations is playing out in Europe as Russia wants security guarantees, including Kyiv never joining NATO, and the US and allies offer arms control and confidence-building measures.

While Russia accuses the West of hysteria, saying some its troops have returned to bases and it has no plans to invade, many Western countries are adamant that the military build-up is continuing ahead of a possible assault.

“We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false-flag operation to have an excuse to go in,” Biden told reporters at the White House. “Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.”

He ordered Secretary of State Antony Blinken to change his travel plans to speak at a United Nations Security Council meeting, where he outlined possible Russian scenarios.

“It could be a fabricated so-called terrorist bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake – even a real – attack using chemical weapons,” Blinken said. “Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing, or a genocide.”

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said Blinken’s comments were regrettable and dangerous.

Diplomatic efforts will continue on Friday when Biden hosts a call with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Britain, the European Union and NATO. Blinken will meet counterparts at the Munich Security Conference.

He will also discuss the crisis late next week with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, “provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine”, the State Department said.

But in a blow to US-Russian relations, Russia expelled US Deputy Chief of Mission Bart Gorman. The move was announced on Thursday but a senior State Department official said he left last week.

Moscow cited the US expulsion of a senior official in Washington, who it said was forced to leave before a replacement could be found as part of a US “visa war”. Washington said it would respond to the “unprovoked” move.

In Ukraine, Russian-backed rebels and Kyiv’s forces traded accusations that each had fired across the ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow accuses Kyiv of “exterminating” civilians.

Ukrainian government forces denied accusations of having targeted separatist positions in the breakaway region of Donbass, which borders Russia.

Details could not be established independently, but reports from both sides suggested an incident more serious than the routine ceasefire violations that are often reported in the area.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was “seriously concerned” about the reports. Russia has long said Kyiv wants an excuse to seize rebel territory by force, which Ukraine denies.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the pro-Russian forces had shelled a kindergarten, in what he called a “big provocation”.

Video footage released by Ukrainian police showed a hole through a brick wall in a room scattered with debris and children’s toys.

The separatists, for their part, accused government forces of opening fire on their territory four times in the past 24 hours.

Estimates also vary as to how many Russia soldiers have massed near Ukraine. Nearby NATO member Estonia cited around 170,000 troops on Wednesday.

The White House said Russia had added 7000 troops to its presence at the Ukrainian border in the previous 24 hours.

Russia’s defence ministry released video it said showed more units leaving the area near the border.

Maxar Technologies, a private US company that has been tracking the build-up, said satellite images showed that, while Russia has pulled back some military equipment from near Ukraine, other hardware has arrived.