Poll bump for National as voting begins in NZ election

Ben McKay | October 21, 2026

As the first New Zealanders prepare to cast ballots in their nail-biting election, both prime ministerial candidates had reasons to be satisfied.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins went three-from-three in the final leaders’ debate on Tuesday night, as judged by political analysts and the public.

Prime Minister Chris Luxon enjoyed a four-point polling bump which re-captures campaign momentum in his National party’s favour.

In the gold-standard TVNZ-Verian poll released on Tuesday night, National clocked 32 per cent, and five points ahead of Labour on 27.

That gap is National’s best lead over Labour since May 2025.

“The choice is becoming clearer to New Zealanders … they’re starting to see what is at stake,” Mr Luxon told TVNZ.

National’s coalition partners ACT and NZ First charted 11 and nine per cent respectively, while Labour’s partners on the left, the Greens and the Maori Party, were on 16 and one per cent.

Politics-watchers have put National’s gain down to a renewed focus on law-and-order issues, an area they dominated in 2023 when retail crime levels were elevated following the pandemic.

The catalysing moment to put crime back on the agenda was a visit by Greens and Maori Party MPs – Labour’s two would-be coalition partners – to a south Auckland gang meeting.

National and its allies seized on selfies on social media as evidence that the left was soft on crime, and willing to do business with gangs.

“You’ve got partners that want to be in coalition with the Mongrel Mob, mate,” Mr Luxon levelled at Mr Hipkins in the debate.

Mr Hipkins criticised the visit as an error of judgment and said it made the parties unfit to hold justice-related portfolios.

He will hope another debate win turns the page, given voting begins on Wednesday with overseas-based voters including Kiwis in Australia.

The last battle of the Chrises was a shouty affair, with a rough-and-tumble format encouraging rebuttal often devolving into a slanging match.

“Where have these Chrises been?” Stuff political editor Jenna Lynch asked, one of a post-debate panel of three to judge Mr Hipkins the winner.

“They stood out there and they actually fought for the job of prime minister which we have not seen in this election campaign to date.”

An online voter poll by debate hosts Stuff gave Mr Hipkins the edge across all topics, but with the most decisive lead on the cost of living: the top issue of this campaign.

The left fared better in a second poll released on Tuesday by The Post-Freshwater, which had Labour on 29 per cent and National on 28.

In that survey, the Greens were on 14 per cent, NZ First on 12, ACT on nine and the Maori Party 2.

The common thread between those polls and most in the past month, is that neither the left bloc or right bloc can reach a majority.

Opportunity, a teal-styled centrist party campaigning on climate, is firming as a likely kingmaker should it reach the critical threshold of five per cent to guarantee MPs.

TVNZ has the party at seven per cent, while The Post scored Qiulae Wong’s party at 5.4 per cent, perilously close to falling short.

While Opportunity maintains it is open-minded as to which side of politics it will back, pledging to negotiate first with the biggest party, most observers see them as a likely fit for the left.