Holy guacamole: Aussie avos set to smash supply records

Stephanie Gardiner | July 23, 2026

Australian avocados are set to guac the world.

After the nation’s crop took a dip in 2024/25, supply is forecast to hit record levels of 170,000 tonnes in coming seasons.

That’s roughly 5kg or 26 avocados for every Australian, more than enough to sustain the nation’s appetite for smashed avocado on toast.

The expected bumper harvest is in line with the natural cycle of alternate bearing, in which avocado trees produce bountiful fruit every second season.

Weather conditions have been ideal in key growing regions of Queensland and Western Australia, according to an industry report released by Rabobank on Thursday.

A record supply would not only make avocados more affordable at the check-out, but also lift exports to key markets like Asia and the Middle East.

RaboResearch analyst Michael Harvey said the industry was only getting stronger.

“Australia’s avocado sector has undergone structural expansion in recent years, underpinned by increased plantings as well as yield gains as newer orchards reach maturity,” Mr Harvey said in a statement.

Growers’ peak body Avocados Australia recently turned to technology to help consumers find the perfect fruit and reduce waste.

The group launched a small trial of supermarket ripeness scanners in March, which identify avocados ready to eat immediately.

Industry research found most avocados are bruised when shoppers squeeze them, with many consumers testing out at least three.

“Finding an avocado at the right stage of ripeness is a key frustration of consumers,” Avocados Australia chief executive John Tyas said, launching the trial.

“If we can help consumers select avocados with greater confidence, we support better eating experiences, reduce bruising and further strengthen trust in Australian avocados.”

The best way to test the ripeness of an avocado was to gently press your thumb near the stem of the fruit, Mr Tyas said.

Australia’s fruit, vegetable and nut sector hit a record $18.4 billion production value in the year to June 2025.

While El Nino, the climatic phase linked to hotter and drier weather, could lead to an uneven global supply, it was not expected to cause a shortfall, the Rabobank report said.