National sticking by unpopular Luxon for NZ election
Ben McKay |
If an Australian leader presided over polling this poor, a leadership spill would be just a matter of time.
In fact, depending on who you believe, a senior minister already explored challenging New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon late in 2025.
Still, the National party is sticking by – or is simply stuck with – their unpopular leader through to the November 7 election.
With nine months to go until Mr Luxon’s coalition faces voters, his centre-right National party is in a bind.
A polling average shows it is down six per cent from the 2023 election – from 38 to 32 per cent – to trail the opposition Labour party.
National is still favoured to return to government should coalition partners ACT and NZ First opt to go around for a second term.
However, on these numbers, National would be a reduced force in government, losing senior ministers, with a real chance of being tossed from power.
The talk of Wellington in recent weeks is whether National might opt for the radical move of deposing Mr Luxon before November.
The move worked for Jacinda Ardern, parachuted in to the Labour leadership just seven weeks before the 2017 election.
Mr Luxon – a former Air New Zealand chief executive – has poor favourability, with 29 per cent viewing his leadership positively and 45 per cent poorly in the latest Curia poll, trailing Labour leader Chris Hipkins.
The government is also deep in negative territory on a question many pollsters see as critical: whether New Zealand is headed in the right or wrong direction.
“Obviously we want our numbers to be higher than they are,” National campaign spokesman and infrastructure minister Chris Bishop told AAP.
Reports from November suggest Mr Bishop took soundings with colleagues on the mood for a leadership change.
The NZ Herald and The Post newspapers reported he found little appetite for a switch in conversations the Wellington-based MP denies took place.
“I think people started interviewing their typewriters to be honest … a bit of a slow news week in Wellington,” Mr Bishop said.
Commentator and former National staffer Ben Thomas said the chapter was “one of the periodic outbursts of musing and talking out loud in the party about Luxon’s leadership”.
“Luxon and his lieutenants put a lid on it pretty quickly and pretty effectively,” he told AAP.
“But it didn’t really answer any of the questions about what does happen as you are marching towards a November 7 election where you are due to lose maybe a fifth of your caucus.”
Mr Thomas believes a number of factors are behind the reticence to roll Mr Luxon, who many Kiwis see as overly corporate or bombastic.
National has recent history with rolling leaders – none of it good – with huge election losses following moves on Jim Bolger and Simon Bridges.
There is also no obvious contender in a caucus split between liberal and conservative factions.
“There are a number of talented ministers who, if you were starting from scratch and drafting them … you would probably put one prime minister before Christopher Luxon,” Mr Thomas said.
“But there isn’t a drumbeat for any candidate.”
He also believes Mr Luxon – who declined an interview request – deserves credit for holding a three-party coalition together, a first in Kiwi history.
“There are very few political party leaders in our recent history who would have been able suck up the current situation in the same way,” he said.
Most pertinently, while National concedes it has work to do, the party still believes the race will turn in its favour.
The cost of living is a central issue and Mr Bishop argues Kiwis will opt for National when forecasted economic gains materialise this year, and the choice with Labour becomes clear.
“Our overriding message is: if you want a strong government and a stable government focused on issues that middle New Zealand is facing, you should party vote for National,” Mr Bishop said.
Mr Thomas said the party should strap in for the next nine months.
“It’s very much a white-knuckle ride,” he said.
AAP