‘Whatever it takes’: Labor’s youth crime political fix
Callum Godde, William Ton and Rachael Ward |
An under-pressure state government has one eye on an election with moves to knock youth crime out of the headlines, political analysts say.
Victoria’s Labor government has vowed to force children as young as 14 into adult courts for sentencing over violent crimes and possible life sentences for “puppet master” criminals who recruit kids into violent gangs.
Record youth crime rates and several high-profile attacks have put the Allan government on the back foot throughout 2025, with reforms to bail, machete sales and ankle monitoring devices.
Crime has been dominating talkback radio and nightly news bulletins, leaving the government vulnerable to opposition attacks, according to political scientist Zareh Ghazarian.
“This has been the issue that Labor has really struggled with,” Dr Ghazarian told AAP.
“Labor strategists would be thinking this takes the wind out of the sails of the coalition and neutralises law and order as a potential vote-changer.”
Labor figure turned pollster Kos Samaras said crime was feeding into a sentiment the state was not travelling well.
The RedBridge director said the latest proposed legislative changes were aimed at locking away the issue and shifting focus to Labor’s traditional territory before the November 2026 state election.
Mr Samaras was Victorian Labor’s deputy campaign director in 2018 when “African gangs” and law and order were key election issues before Daniel Andrews led the party to a landslide victory.
With Victoria’s finances under strain, the pollster said Premier Jacinta Allan could no longer rely on a key weapon Labor had used previously.
“We could spend our way out of that problem by making announcements on our grid and focusing the whole campaign on our turf,” Mr Samaras said.
“She doesn’t have that luxury, so she needs to get it off the table.”
Labor could afford to lose progressive voters as preferences would flow back but needed to appeal to centrists broadly, Mr Samaras said.
He suggested Labor figures would go along with the plan to improve their chances of claiming a fourth successive term in government, a feat never achieved by the party in Victoria.
“They’ve been very determined … whatever it takes, they’ll win,” Mr Samaras said.
Queensland passed “adult crime, adult time” laws in December 2024 following the Liberal-National Party’s return to power under Premier David Crisafulli.
Victorian Opposition Leader Brad Battin has taken a leaf out of his counterpart’s playbook, declaring he’ll step down if elected premier and crime statistics have not improved by 2030.
Ms Allan said she was “focused on seeing this job through” when asked whether she would resign if crime numbers did not come down.
She insists beefing up consequences for violent youth offenders was done with victims of crime in mind rather than polling.
However, state police union boss Wayne Gatt has lingering doubts longer maximum sentences and life sentences will have any impact, calling it “spin”.
“No one in Victoria is going to get a life sentence for any of these offences,” he said.
Police Minister Anthony Carbines conceded the crime rate remained unacceptably high, but guaranteed “these changes will work”.
AAP
