Blue-and-white army playing right into Penrith’s hands
Scott Bailey |
Canterbury’s rally cry for their blue-and-white army to attend Sunday’s semi-final in droves could prove the ultimate gift for Penrith, with data showing the Panthers enjoy more success in fuller stadiums.
Officials are expecting at least 55,000 fans for the blockbuster at Accor Stadium, with a huge walk-up contingent required to reach the initially anticipated 70,000.
The majority of those are expected to come from the Bulldogs’ huge fan base at their home ground, with coach Cameron Ciraldo urging them to turn up and attend.
But that also suits the Panthers just fine, with a rocking atmosphere expected.
Since COVID-19, crowd restrictions lifted at the start of the 2022 season and statistics show a direction correlation between packed stadiums and Penrith’s winning rates.
For instance, Penrith have won 31 of 38 matches at stadiums at 80 per cent capacity, from small regional venues to much larger stadiums.
But that win rate drops off dramatically at emptier stadiums to the point of the reigning premiers recording just five wins from 13 games when it is less than half full.
Included in those are multiple shock losses to South Sydney at a quieter Accor Stadium, as well as this year’s early season struggles at a flat CommBank Stadium.
“I would say we have quite a number of guys who relish the big occasion and big crowds,” Penrith coach Ivan Cleary said.
“That has definitely been the case (that we play better in front of a big crowd) this year and maybe last year.
“There is no doubt their home crowd is an advantage (on Sunday). But this field, we have some great memories there.
“Any player worth their salt would be looking forward to this game.”
Canterbury have also had success in front of large crowds this year against South Sydney and Parramatta, but were beaten by Brisbane at a packed Suncorp Stadium in April.
Meanwhile, the irony of Penrith’s struggles in quieter stadiums is that the Panthers’ dynasty was borne out of the 2020 and 2021 seasons, when crowds were locked out of games.
Players believe the uptick in performance in front of bigger attendances is down to two aspects.
Firstly, the Panthers became accustomed to playing at packed houses at BlueBet Stadium after the pandemic, with the venue rocking and fans close to the players.
Also, their players have a wealth of big-game experience, having filled State of Origin teams and representative sides since 2021, and playing more finals than any other club in that time.
“It’s definitely a combination of that,” second-rower Scott Sorensen said.
“We have loved playing in front of big crowds. We just embrace it and enjoy that atmosphere, even if it’s away at Accor or in New Zealand.
“It gives that finals feel and that’s what you want to be part of.
“We get really excited for a big occasion. I feel like this group has really embraced that and wanted to take that challenge head on.”
Penrith on Sunday kept the door open for hooker Mitch Kenny to return from a hamstring injury in the No.22 jersey, while Canterbury have ruled out captain Stephen Crichton.
PENRITH’S RECORD BY CROWD-CAPACITY LEVELS SINCE START OF 2022:
80-100 per cent: Won: 31, Lost: 7
60-80: Won: 13, Lost: 5, Drawn: 1
40-60: Won: 10, Lost: 6
0-40: Won: 1, Lost: 5
AAP
