Junk-time points could put Manly’s season on scrapheap
Scott Bailey |
Manly could be left to rue a slew of junk-time points conceded in 2025, with data showing just how crucial switching off late in blow-out games may prove this season.
Needing a miracle to play finals, Manly enter their last-round clash with the Warriors behind the eighth-placed Sydney Roosters on both wins and for-and-against.
Even if the Sea Eagles were to leapfrog the Roosters, they would still need the Dolphins to lose to Canberra on Sunday given the for-and-against situation.
Manly’s end-of-season review will likely focus heavily on their wild inconsistency, having beaten three of the top four this year while losing to three of the bottom four.
But beyond that, what makes Manly’s task so hard, going into the final round, is a for-and-against 82 points inferior to the Roosters and 67 points behind the Dolphins.
And it is there that junk-time points will have cost the Sea Eagles if they, the Roosters and Dolphins were to all finish level on wins.
This year, the Sea Eagles have let in 70 ‘junk-time points’, defined as those scored when the margin is already 13 points or more in the final 10 minutes.
That is more than any other team in the top 10, and more than double that let in by the Roosters and Dolphins who have conceded 28 and 22 respectively.
In the first four rounds alone, Manly let in five tries late in games that were already effectively over, before a similar run in recent weeks.
Granted, Manly have also scored 56 junk-time points of their own in attack, but that is a number almost matched by the Roosters and far exceeded by the Dolphins.
“You can reflect on any number of things,” Manly coach Anthony Seibold said.
“You can go through any number of players who are missing. You can use that as an excuse. It’s not.
“But I feel like we’ve handled a lot of bushfires this year and we kept throwing punches.”
Junk-time returns, meanwhile, are what have given the Dolphins hope with a for-and-against competitive with the Roosters headed into the final round.
No club are better at piling on points late, with the Redcliffe-based club having scored 84 this season in the final 10 minutes of already-decided games.
The Dolphins need the Roosters to lose on Friday night, while they beat Canberra on Sunday with a combined margin of 16 points in the two games.
HOW EACH TEAM’S JUNK-TIME RECORD STANDS
Canberra – For: 36, Against: 10. Diff: +26
Melbourne – For: 30, Against: 50. Diff: -20
Canterbury – For 48, Against: 42 Diff: 6
Brisbane – For: 48, Against: 64 Diff: -16
Cronulla – For: 27, Against: 56 Diff: -29
Warriors – For: 40, Against: 30 Diff: 10
Penrith – For: 36, Against: 7 Diff: 29
Sydney Roosters – For: 52, Against: 28 Diff: 24
Dolphins – For: 84. Against: 22 Diff: 62
Manly – For: 56, Against: 70 Diff: -14
AAP
