The race to the 2023 NRL finals intensifies

Alex Mitchell and Darren Walton | August 20, 2023

South Sydney are under threat of missing the NRL finals for the first time in six years as the race to the playoffs intensifies.

Eighth-placed Souths’ 29-10 loss to Newcastle on Sunday left the door open for North Queensland (28 points) and the Sydney Roosters (28) to leapfrog the Rabbitohs (28) over the final two rounds of the home-and-away season.

Canberra’s 36-24 win against Canterbury on Sunday didn’t help Souths, who pick up two points for a bye next before facing the Roosters in a likely do-or-die final-round encounter.

The Roosters are favoured to beat Wests Tigers next weekend to set up the blockbuster after continuing their late-season charge with a 34-12 win over Parramatta (26).

Ninth-placed North Queensland must beat the Dolphins and the Panthers to play finals football.

The Raiders are all but assured of their place in the eight, and can officially book their spot with a win against Brisbane (40) or the Sharks (32), or if the Cowboys lose either of their games.

The Panthers, who are two wins away from a third minor premiership in four seasons, might consider resting some players in their round-27 meeting with the Cowboys.

But that could bring their chase for top spot with Brisbane undone.

Penrith sit level on points with Brisbane but have a strong points differential advantage, of 102 points.

The Warriors (36) are all but locked in to a top-four finish following a controversial 29-22 victory over Manly (25) that officially eliminated the Sea Eagles from contention.

The Warriors can formally seal a double-chance if they beat either St George Illawarra or the Dolphins in their last two matches.

That would guarantee at least one home final at their Mt Smart Stadium fortress, a challenge no Australian-based side would likely be thrilled about.

Cronulla’s 32-12 drubbing of the Cowboys means the Sharks are still in the top-four hunt, but they will need Melbourne (34) to lose to either Gold Coast or Brisbane in the coming fortnight.

Newcastle’s seven-game winning streak means victory against either Cronulla or the Dragons books the Knights a spot in the post-season.

Parramatta’s defeat left them hanging on for dear life, mathematically still a chance but needing to upset Penrith (40) and have a series of other unlikely results go their way to miraculously scrape in.

RUN HOME FOR THE NRL FINALS CONTENDERS:

1. PENRITH (40 points, +315) versus Eels (home), Cowboys (home)

2. BRISBANE (40, +213) v Raiders (a), Storm (h)

3. WARRIORS (36, +136) v Dragons (h), Dolphins (a)

4. MELBOURNE (34, +137) v Titans (h), Broncos (a)

5. CRONULLA (32, +130) v Knights (a), Raiders (h)

6. CANBERRA (32, -108) v Broncos (h), Sharks (a)

7. NEWCASTLE (31, +129) v Sharks (h), Dragons (a)

8. SOUTH SYDNEY (28, +73) v bye, Roosters (h)

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9. NORTH QUEENSLAND (28, +12) v Dolphins (a), Panthers (a)

10. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (28, -62) v Tigers (h), Rabbitohs (a)